A short film by Abhinav Jain:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxG4w_EW2ZI
Other posts in this series are:
A short film by Abhinav Jain:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxG4w_EW2ZI
Other posts in this series are:
I found this book to be one of THE most important reads because of its relevance to ALL of us living in this modern era, irrespective of who/where/what we are. It walks the readers through the process of how our Modern Industrial World has come about; it throws light on the math behind the fast-depleting resource -- petroleum; it analyses all the existing alternative energy options and concludes with a paradigm shifting note on rebuilding a post peak oil world.
The Third Curve is written by Mansoor Khan. He lives on his organic farm called Acres Wild, in South India. Khan says that this book "examines the stark and unbridgeable disparity between the compulsions
of exponential, economic growth and the energy limits imposed on us by
the laws of geology, thermodynamics and the finiteness of the Earth". He says "this book is
not about morality, justice, equality and environmental consciousness.
It is about what is possible and what is not". All the graphs on this post are from Khan's website.
Khan says "The Modern World is obsessed with growth. We worship growth. Growth is our religion". He clarifies what "growth" means in this context. It is "NOT any old kind of biological growth, nor it is the kind of qualitative growth that makes us love our family and friends; growth in this context is reduced to a quantitative state".
Before we get to the Third Curve, we need to understand what the first two curves are. The First Curve, concept curve, is used to illustrate the growth of a given quantity. In Financial System, the concept curve shows the growth of money. Our financial system is based on ideas like:
- money is a TRUE representation of the value of goods and services
- money must grow with time by a factor of P%
- growth of money must compound
- compounding growth must be perpetual
This is where he introduces the term "Perpetual Exponential Quantitative Growth". "PEQG is a monster, overruling all other laws. This monster is the founding principle of Modern Economics".
The Second Curve is Bell Curve. The extraction of all natural resources obeys the Bell Curve. "The reality of the Modern Industrial World is energy and 60% of it comes from fossil fuels (Coal, Natural Gas and Oil). So fossil fuels are the most important component of our natural capital, and among them Oil in particular." Thus he focuses on "Oil" whenever he refers to the energy usage and production. As the Economy of a nation or the World grows, so does its energy usage. Being a natural resource, Oil obeys natural laws, especially the ones of Geology.
In the real world, our concept is "Money Growth" and the reality that makes it possible is Oil Production. "Oil is the defining factor for Industrial Growth and therefore Money Growth". Khan uses the global money supply graph to illustrate how the Industrial growth is occurring. This is an exponential growth. And this growth is based on the "Reality" of Oil Production, which being a resource the graph is bell shaped. When these two curves are juxtaposed, we can see how impractical it is to sustain the current Industrial world in the current fashion. The juxtaposition of the curves, yields three distinct phases of our economy.
Phase 1 (Paradise Times: 1900 - 1960's):
Here the Money and Oil curves are running fairly parallel to each other.We were able to draw Oil from the Earth at an exponential rate; this part of the Bell curve does go up more or less exponentially. This made us believe that the sky was the limit.
Phase 2 (1970's - mid 2000):
The curves start moving away from each other. Money keeps going up, whereas Oil, being a natural resource, starts slowing down. "This was the beginning of the Eco-Collapse. This breakdown was manifested in the first signs of species getting extinct, forests disappearing, fisheries declining, rivers drying, aquifers depleting etc." We were clearly "exceeding the carrying capacity of the Earth's ecosystems". Our financial system was being propped up, because there was a growing hollowness under its surface. This was a time to rethink Growth. But it didn't happen. Instead "every effort was made to deny reality and to perpetuate growth".
Phase 3 (mid 2000 - present):
According to the undeniable Bell Curve graph, "the future path in Phase 3 seems steeply downhill with the current economic paradigm". This is where he introduces "Peak Oil".
"Peak means half gone". Our Modern Industrial Society is heavily dependent on this limited non-renewable resource that we have reached the peak of. From this point on, there is a more or less steep decline in the resource curve. Now the future is highly dependent on the choices we make. Unless we make new choices a collapse is inevitable.
What IS Oil and why is it THIS precious?
"150 million years of the Sun's energy, half gone in 150 years. This is equivalent to spending a million times your salary every month". That clearly can't work! "The world will not disappear because of Peak Oil but we will find ourselves in a considerably different world with a new set of economic rules, in fact, an inversion of the rules of Economics, Shrinkage instead of Growth".
Our current world is built with oil, runs on oil and is maintained by oil. Let us take our food system to illustrate this. Today's mono-cropping systems use oil at each of the following step: ploughing, spraying pesticides, fertilizers, cropping, thrashing, cleaning, packing, storing, transporting, (in some cases)
refrigerating. "Remove oil from this network and the complete food system will collapse". Personally we have seen this in our village.The tragedy is multi-fold in an agrarian place like this -- the culture around food has collapsed too. Each stage of food growing called for a certain expertise and all of it was locally found. Now with the advent of industrial ways local expertise is fast disappearing and oil dependency is increasing. Professor Albert Bartlett of the University of Colorado at Boulder rightly said: "Modern agriculture is the use of land to convert petroleum into food". There is an extremely complex web of oil inter-dependencies. All the
alternative energy options are themselves built using oil energy. Such
is the uniqueness of oil.
Hubbert's Role:
Marion King Hubbert was a geoscientist working at the Shell research lab in Texas, in the early 1950s. He predicted that the rate of oil production resembled the Bell Curve. He did statistical analysis on data regarding Discoveries (of oil wells) Vs. Production of Oil, within the US. Based on his theory, he predicted that the US petroleum production would peak between the late 1960s and early 1970s. "Hubbert was met with scathing criticism at first. He was mocked and ridiculed". And indeed, US oil production did peak around 1971.
"This marked a new era in the US history that prompted a scramble for cheap oil outside its borders to keep the growth going". Now, let us look at the global data. We were at the peak of oil production around 2005. "The future shape is projected from past experiences, but the rate of decline obviously depends on our consumption patterns". The Oil Drum (http://theoildrum.com/node/5576) showed that 40 of the 54 oil producing nations had reached Peak Oil production. "The era of cheap oil is definitively over".
Okay, what do we do now?
"Peak Oil is a predicament and not a problem. Problems have solutions but predicaments are a nature of reality and we have to cope with them. They do not have solutions. People have mistaken the finiteness of our planet and its resources as a problem." This is the crux of the matter.
In the next section of the book, Khan evaluates all the alternatives using five rules viz. Net Energy, Oil Dependency, Energy Density, Scalability and Oil Byproducts. He applies these rules to the entire gamut of energy options:
- Liquid fuel alternatives (bio fuel-Ethanol, tar sands, shale oil)
- Other fossil fuels (coal and natural gas)
- Electricity alternatives (solar, wind, hydro etc.)
He then presents the data to back up his case -- "alternatives can do nothing to save our paradigm of perpetual exponential economic growth".
Thus there is a pressing need to move beyond the two curves -- exponential and bell. Here he introduces the third curve which is a behavioural curve of the universe, the one that is "embedded in nature". This curve follows the rhythms of our primary energy provider, the sun. "Reliably it rises, peaks and ebbs only to rise again". Growth in nature "was always meant to oscillate in gentle waves of highs and lows, following the sun's energy. The smaller oscillations of day and night were superimposed on larger oscillations of seasons and the even larger oscillations of solar cycles".
"Ever changing, yet ever remaining, in a narrow band of values. Nothing going to the sky and nothing going to zero".
"Return to the Third Curve is inevitable. Because that is the steady-state – the eternal rhythm of the universe. We have 2 paths to the Third Curve – denial or acceptance of peak oil".
"The path through acceptance can immediately start a smoother, longer and
managed energy descent, which involves re-alignment of our economic
paradigm, cultural beliefs, making sacrifices and bearing some degree of
pain. This path will be gentler, less steep and give us time to adapt.
It also entails a simultaneous understanding and movement towards the
new world that is inevitable with a lower energy budget. We stand a much
better chance of bypassing collapse and consciously shaping an
unfamiliar but desirable future". This is shown in the graph above in green.
The last bit of the book dives in to the Transition -- "a structured and conscious way of moving safely from our present high energy-consumption state based on fossil fuels, towards a low energy-consumption state". Transition is based on principles such as rebuilding the soil, rebuilding the community and its resilience, growing local food, developing alternative and earth-friendly agriculture and encouraging local initiatives. Cuba's peak oil story at the end of the book shows that it is indeed entirely possible to make a meaningful journey, collectively as a community, to Transition down to the Third Curve.
"If Cuba could do it, so can any part of the world, provided we first recognize the new reality of shrinking energy and money and then adopt the principles of the Transition method".
For further reading:
- "Collapse Now and Avoid the Rush" by John Michael Greer
- Charles Eisenstein's "Sacred Economics"
We were in a park in California with a couple and their toddler. This was twenty years ago when we were new immigrants in the US. The toddler was being carried around by her parents for quite a while. When she insisted on being down on the ground her parents complied. She was barefoot and she clearly didn't like the feel of grass. She curled her toes and made distressed faces. It seemed to me that she found it repulsive. Before she started crying she was high up again resting comfortably against her dad's shoulder. Although this incident lasted only a few minutes, it haunted me. Especially because I had always seen children roaming around barefoot in India. I was wondering how unnatural it was for such a small child to dislike something that was absolutely natural, given our evolutionary past.
A few years down the lane, I had conveniently adopted new ways of living in the US. House slippers, walking shoes, running shoes and hiking shoes ensured that I was never barefoot. I insisted that my kids never step out without footwear. I was into running then. I sought relief in new pairs of footwear for the pain that manifested in my legs and feet. I thought that if Nike didn't work, Puma would. And if Puma didn't Keen might. Then came Vibram. Dev started using these when he ran and found the experience very enjoyable. That was when we got introduced to barefoot running. This phase didn't last long though. This was also the time when we were packing our bags to move to India.
During the initial period in India, as the kids were getting used to new ways of living I noticed that they stopped wearing their footwear unless we were traveling. Shoes are impractical in a humid place like ours; we switched to sandals. The kids would never wear them to play on the road or to visit the neighbors or while they were at the farm. Over a period of time their feet developed calluses and they could walk nimbly even on gravelly surfaces. They encouraged me to go barefoot while I was at the farm. I was equally keen to try it out because I was always in pain from wearing footwear - shoes or sandals, all the brands that I have tried, have left me begging for something that would cause less pain. I timed my barefoot experience every day; starting literally from baby steps and slowly ramping it up. Initially it was quite painful. In a few months it was effortless and it brought my pain significantly down. By this time I was deeply interested in evolutionary biology and was making changes in our lifestyle based on this new understanding, to fix our health issues. Thus there was a context that helped me understand the significance of going barefoot. After all each one of us have uniquely shaped feet and how can it be possible for Nike or Reebok to get it right for all of us?
The human foot is a marvelous, complex mechanical structure. According to wikipedia, it has 26 bones, 33 joints and more than a hundred muscles, tendons and ligaments. When we wear shoes, these bones and joints are fused to perform as one unit which they obviously are not. Only when we go barefoot we can observe the nuanced ways of functioning and feedback that have existed for millennia in this region of our body.
We recently started running barefoot. We run for 15-20 minutes, about 1.5 to 2 km. This has helped fix my gait and eliminate the pain in my legs and feet.
Here are some resources for further reading and research:
1. Running Shoes: Why we don't need them - Christopher McDougall
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F90D418SFZI
2. Are we born to run? - Christopher McDougall
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b-iGZPtWXzE
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| Mani working on a palm log |
| Subramani Anna thatching |